Latest polls adjusted to reflect realistic voter turnout show Trump winning the U.S. election in a huge landslide victory.
Realclearpolitics.com has the following electoral map right now. They did an average of all the leading polls to get this map.
Electoral vote totals in the “safe states” (red or blue) are:
Trump (red): 164
Hillary (blue): 203
In the remaining gray states, what’s going on?
The pollsters say those states are a toss-up. But they’re wrong.
Here’s why:
- Pollsters are wrong on the percentage of white voters relative to other voting groups.
- Pollsters have over sampled Democrats in key states
- Pollsters are ignoring the increased Republican turnout this year.
- Pollsters are underestimating the numbers of Democrats voting for Trump – the “Trumpocrats.”
Statespoll.com has gone state-by-state and adjusted the polls for these factors. Each day, they publish realistic numbers for key states.
Here are the latest results for key states (click on the adjusted numbers to see the analysis for each state):
North Carolina: Trump +9.1%
Remington, 11/1-11/2, 2596 Likely Voters
TRUMP 48% | Hillar 45% | Johnson 3%
Adjusted: TRUMP 50.9% | Hillary 41.8% | Johnson 3.3%
Florida: Trump +6.7%
YouGov 11/2-11/4, 1188 Registered Voters
TRUMP 45% | Hillary 45% | Johnson 4% | Stein 2%
Adjusted: TRUMP 48.1% | Hillary 41.4% | Johnson 4.5% | Stein 2.8%
Colorado: Trump +5.9%
Gravis, 11/1-11/2, 1125 RV
Hillary 40% | TRUMP 40% | Johnson 7% | Stein 4%
Adjusted: TRUMP 42.9% | Hillary 37%
Pennsylvania: Trump +3.3%
Remington 11/1-11/2, 2683 Likely Voters
Hillary 46% | TRUMP 45% | Johnson 4%
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.6% | Hillary 43.6% | Johnson 4.4%
Note from Statespoll.com: Remington didn’t include stein, with Stein perhaps hillary’s numbers could be minus 1~2%.
New Hampshire: Trump +2.9%
Emerson. 11/4-11/5. 1000 Likely Voters
Hillary 45.4% | TRUMP 43.8% | Johnson 4.5% | Stein 3.3%
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.3% | Hillary 43.4%
Nevada: Trump +.45%
Emerson 11/4-11/5, 600 Likely Voters
Hillary 46.8% | TRUMP 45.8% | Johnson 3.9% | Stein 1.1%
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.5% | Hillary 46.05%
With those six states in the Trump column plus Ohio and Georgia (Trump +5.2%) and several others, here’s what Statespoll.com believes the election will look like:
Bottom line: When you adjust the polls for real voters in 2016, you get very different results.
You get:
Trump: 315 electoral votes
Hillary: 200
Toss up: 23
That’s what real polling numbers show.
They’re showing a Trump landslide!