Elon Musk has warned that Europe could “cease to exist” if birth rates don’t increase significantly in the near future
In a post on X on Saturday, the tech billionaire was responding to statistics from Scotland showing 34% more deaths than births in the first half of 2025.
RT reports: Referring to the average number of children needed per couple for a population to replace itself, he wrote: “Unless the birth rate at least gets back to replacement rate, Europe will die out“.
The replacement fertility rate is generally set at 2.1 children per woman, accounting for child mortality and near-equal gender ratios at birth. Recent studies, however, suggest that this level may be insufficient, pointing to a long-term survival threshold closer to 2.7 children per woman.
According to the UK’s Office for National Statistics, the fertility rate in England and Wales fell to 1.4 in 2024, while Scotland’s stood at 1.3 – both far below replacement levels. In the EU, fertility has been declining for years, reaching a record low of 1.4 live births per woman in 2023.
Musk, a vocal advocate for higher birth rates who has fathered at least 14 children and donated millions to fertility research, has often raised the alarm over the demographic decline in Europe. His warnings, however, extend beyond Europe. Musk has cited global demographic data, claiming that civilization “is going to crumble” unless birth rates rise. He previously argued that population collapse due to low fertility “is a much bigger risk to civilization” than climate change.
Worldwide, fertility has been falling for over 50 years. UN data shows it stood at around 2.2 births per woman in 2024, down from 5 in the 1970s and 3.3 in the 1990s. Only 45% of countries and areas – home to roughly a third of the global population – reported fertility levels at or above 2.1 last year. Just 13% had fertility rates of 4.0 or higher, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, Afghanistan, Sudan, and Yemen.