Forecaster Who Predicted 24 of Last 26 Elections Says Media Is Wrong, Trump Has 91% Chance of Re-election

Fact checked

While the mainstream media is attempting to convince America the November election has already been decided and Joe Biden is set to pick up more than 400 electoral college votes, a political scientist and election forecaster who has correctly predicted 24 out of 26 past presidential elections is giving very different information. 

Professor Helmut Norpoth finalized his 2020 electoral prediction earlier this month, predicting that President Trump has a 91% chance of securing re-election.

The political scientist and college professor is making his prediction on the basis of a model he has used to successfully forecast five of the last six presidential elections, including the election the entire mainstream media got wrong: Trump’s victory over Clinton in 2016.

Which should come as no surprise if you cast your mind back to the 2016 election and remember the media claimed Hillary Clinton had a “98.1% chance” and in some cases “more than 99% chance” of winning the presidency. 

Which of course was proved gloriously incorrect and proved the mainstream media are 1) more than capable of getting things completely, mind-bendingly wrong, and 2) operate as little more than the PR arm of the Democrat Party around election time.

How does Norpoth keep getting it right when mainstream media gets it so wrong? Rather than relying on notoriously unreliable polls, the Stony Brook University professor bases his electoral predictions on the hard data of presidential primary results.

Norpoth is pointing to a record breaking turnout for President Trump in the Republican primaries, and highlighting some of Joe Biden’s early struggles in the Democratic primary.

The now-Democratic nominee secured only around 8% of the vote in the first-in-the-nation primary, an unprecedentedly low figure for an eventual nominee.

People have forgotten how Joe Biden did in New Hampshire,” Norpoth added during his interview with Stony Brook News. “He was terrible. He got 8.4 percent of the vote, which is unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president.”

The only presidential election that Norpoth has ever predicted incorrectly was the hotly contested 2000 presidential election, which George W. Bush won over Al Gore by a razor-thin margin in the swing state of Florida alone.

The key to the November election is the primaries,” Norpoth told Fox News in July. “The early primaries are giving us a lot of information. Based on that, Donald Trump won them very easily in his party. Joe Biden, the likely nominee for the Democrats, had a great deal of trouble, pulled it together, but on balance is that stronger performance of primaries that gives Donald Trump the edge in November.

Polling is breaking in the direction of the president, and it’s worth noting that it’s considerably rare in American history for a challenger to defeat an incumbent.

Baxter Dmitry

Baxter Dmitry

Baxter Dmitry is a writer at The People's Voice. He covers politics, business and entertainment. Speaking truth to power since he learned to talk, Baxter has travelled in over 80 countries and won arguments in every single one. Live without fear.
Baxter Dmitry


  1. They know Trump will win the whitehouse, that is NOT the plan. The plan is to steal the elections of the house and senate and have a communist dominated house and senate against Trump. They are using the Covid 19 to help them cheat in the elections. NJ would turn republcian on these elections if the elections were fair. but they are not. Voter fraud will prevail in NJ and NY. NY would turn republican also except for the massive voter fraud, mainly coming out of NYC. disgusting.

  2. Hmm Im quite convinced that the democrats have bern given licence to cheat and that its all been set up already.

  3. LOL how do they come up with this crap and how many people fall for it. The article literally says he “has correctly predicted 24 out of 26 past presidential elections”. So we have a presidential election every 4 years…that means his first prediction would have been for the 1916 presidential election 104 years ago which would make him out to be somewhere around 124 years old. I guess math (like science) is just hard for conservatives.

    • Let’s read ONLY the words that are there. Nowhere does it say anything about Presidential elections. It simply states 24 out of the last 26 elections. I guess reading (like common sense) is just hard for liberals.

  4. Nkgoo, geniş kapsamlı bilgi platformudur. Her konuda bilgi içeriği üretme amacıyla yayın hayatına başlamış referans kaynak sitedir. Ayrıca telif hakları konularına da özen gösterilmektedir.

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