A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle has revealed that solar activity will fall by as much as 60% by 2030, when conditions will be similar to those seen during the last mini ice age in 1645.
Phys.org reports:
It is 172 years since a scientist first spotted that the Sun’s activity varies over a cycle lasting around 10 to 12 years. But every cycle is a little different and none of the models of causes to date have fully explained fluctuations. Many solar physicists have put the cause of the solar cycledown to a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun. Now, Zharkova and her colleagues have found that adding a second dynamo, close to the surface, completes the picture with surprising accuracy.
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“We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun’s interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time. Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%,” said Zharkova.
Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called ‘principal component analysis’ of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California. They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008. In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity. All the predictions and observations were closely matched.
Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.
“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’,” said Zharkova. “Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago.”
Sean Adl-Tabatabai
No more sun bath for Kim Kardashian
No more sun bath for Kim Kardashian
What brought the LIA and icing of the Thames back in winter 1939/40?
From: http://www.2030climate.com/a2005/02_11-Dateien/02_11.html
– 21 January 1940: -23C was recorded at Rhayader (Wales).
– 22 January 1940; Severe snowstorms swept Europe from the Adriatic Sea to
Scandinavia. (NYT, 23 January 1940).
– 26 January 1940; Headline: Cold Greater Foe Than Germans For French Army in Front
Lines. Most Severe Winter in Generations Taxes Troops’ Endurance to the Limit
but Test Is Met With Courage (NYT, 27 January 1940). It has been freezing for
six weeks. Everything is frozen – the bread in the sling bag, the wine in the
canteen. (ditto).
– 28 January 1940; In the close vicinity of London the river Thames has frozen for
the first time since 1814. (Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 29 January 1940).
– 29 January 1940; Icy Storm Hits Britain; London Has Heavy Snow (NYT, 29 January
1940). Heavy snow paralyses Britain; Transportation is badly affected. Trains
from Scotland fail to reach London. The united Press said that snow was falling
over most of the country yesterday and that the cold broke a forty-six-year
record. Snow still was falling heavily over most of the country today and there
were three inches of snow in the centre of London. (NYT, 30 January 1940).
– 31 January 1940; Crawford/Scotland had been cut off by a blizzard raging over the
British Isles last Saturday (27 January). Newspapers permitted to publish the
first details of the blizzard, called it the coldest weather in a century.
(NYT, 01 February 1940).
What brought the LIA and icing of the Thames back in winter 1939/40?
From: http://www.2030climate.com/a2005/02_11-Dateien/02_11.html
– 21 January 1940: -23C was recorded at Rhayader (Wales).
– 22 January 1940; Severe snowstorms swept Europe from the Adriatic Sea to
Scandinavia. (NYT, 23 January 1940).
– 26 January 1940; Headline: Cold Greater Foe Than Germans For French Army in Front
Lines. Most Severe Winter in Generations Taxes Troops’ Endurance to the Limit
but Test Is Met With Courage (NYT, 27 January 1940). It has been freezing for
six weeks. Everything is frozen – the bread in the sling bag, the wine in the
canteen. (ditto).
– 28 January 1940; In the close vicinity of London the river Thames has frozen for
the first time since 1814. (Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 29 January 1940).
– 29 January 1940; Icy Storm Hits Britain; London Has Heavy Snow (NYT, 29 January
1940). Heavy snow paralyses Britain; Transportation is badly affected. Trains
from Scotland fail to reach London. The united Press said that snow was falling
over most of the country yesterday and that the cold broke a forty-six-year
record. Snow still was falling heavily over most of the country today and there
were three inches of snow in the centre of London. (NYT, 30 January 1940).
– 31 January 1940; Crawford/Scotland had been cut off by a blizzard raging over the
British Isles last Saturday (27 January). Newspapers permitted to publish the
first details of the blizzard, called it the coldest weather in a century.
(NYT, 01 February 1940).
What part of this made you think “the sun will be dark by 2030”? FFS, that’s ridiculous
What part of this made you think “the sun will be dark by 2030”? FFS, that’s ridiculous