Scientific research predicts civil unrest by 2020 as political turmoil reaches a peak.
Social order as we know it will collapse in three years, plunging the world into unrest and chaos.
Professor Peter Turchin says his assumptions are not predictions, but are based on latest research using historical facts and mathematical models.
The Sunday Express reports:
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Prof Turchin has developed a subject known as “cliodynamics” which analyses history as a science, which includes predictions and models based on past experiences.
The Russian-American scientist has been building his model for years, but states the election of Donald Trump as President of the US will accelerate the negative trends, leading to a peak in turmoil in 2020.
He highlights the “elite overproduction” – where the rich get richer – as another exacerbating feature of the rising tensions and will lead to “ideological polarisation and fragmentation of the political class.”
Writing a piece for Phys.org, Mr Turchin said: “My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s.
“The presidential election which we have experienced, unfortunately, confirms this forecast.
“We seem to be well on track for the 2020s instability peak. And although the election is over, the deep structural forces that brought us the current political crisis have not gone away.
“If anything, the negative trends seem to be accelerating.”
Donald Trump’s proposed tax policies are another element that could bring on the inevitable collapse of society, Mr Turchin adds.
He writes: “Drastically reducing taxes on wealthy Americans will hardly strengthen the fiscal health of the state.”
Dismissing the idea that his prediction is sensationalist, he adds: “This is a science-based forecast, not a ‘prophecy’.”
However, the collapse of society can be avoided.
Mr Turchin concluded: “Our society, like all previous complex societies, is on a rollercoaster.
“Impersonal social forces bring us to the top; then comes the inevitable plunge. But the descent is not inevitable.
“Ours is the first society that can perceive how those forces operate, even if dimly. This means that we can avoid the worst – perhaps by switching to a less harrowing track, perhaps by redesigning the rollercoaster altogether.”
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