Legal Expert: If Trump Is Impeached, There Will Be A Civil War

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Trump impeachment likely to lead to civil war

Constitutional expert Bon Scott has warned that if the New World Order get its way and impeaches President Trump, a civil war will likely break out across America. 

Scott warns that an impeachment will result in millions of armed citizens taking to the streets of Washington in show of defiance against the ruling elite.

“10,000,000 people will march on Washington if they try to impeach Trump… they will be heavily armed. I will be one of them. No kidding.”

Zerohedge.com reports: While our colleague seems given to hyperbole consider this. Last year as early as February he said:

“Trump can win. Ignore the polls. Polls are meaningless in an election with so many “shock events”. The truth is Donald Trump can win the election in a landslide.

That was true. We quoted him in our October 2016 post HERE.

SKG contributor Vince Lanci echoed Bon’s words in this Aug post:

On the flip side Trump fans should be happy.  If past calls are any indication Trump will indeed win in  landslide..

Bon also said in our July Post

Trump will spend like a drunken sailor

That Story HERE

This is also true in Trumps’s attempts if not in execution yet.

Can you argue With Bon?

The truth is, while our pseudonymous contributor is given to outrageously couched statements, he  has picked up  on something that is close to our hearts.  You can  see it in how polls are just wrong consistently. And to us that is explainable. The statistical world relies to heavily on  polls. Polls are merely “snapshots’ of moments.

What is not revealed in polls is the subjectivity of the person being polled!. We know the bias of pollsters. But what has been ignored for years is subjective probability. That concept relates to trends when humans are involved.

Do you think people are going to be honest with pollsters anymore? No, they say what you want to hear so they can move on. Voting is very private. And people  are taking back that privacy. On a broader scale, subjective or conditional probability includes drifts or trends.  Nassim Taleb is a key proponent of this, and we count him  as a genius in  taking his options  knowledge and applying it to many fields in need of improvement. We also  enjoy his lambasting those dogmatists that do not get it.  Jim Rickards is another subscriber to Bayesian  theorems.

What Is  Bayesian Probability?

Simply put, is it a 50/50 chance the sun rises tomorrow? Statistically the answer is yes to an uneducated caveman seeing it for the first time. But how many times can that caveman stick with those stats when 5 years later the sun continues to rise?

Personal example: If it is 50/50 that a coin  lands on heads or tails, then how come I could at one time flip a coin and make it land on heads 10x in a row? Statisticians will say ” Luck, law of large numbers will fix that”. Sorry guys that is just not true.

Here is why. I practiced coin flipping at one point in my trading career to make it a skill. I measured how high it had to go, what side the coin had  to start on, and how hard I had to flip it. Was I cheating? No. What people see as randomness is actually a skill based event via intense practice. Had I let the coin land on the ground it would have been randomized. But I did not.

Pollsters Do Not Get it

This is the essence of the core ignorance of pollsters and statisticians. They ignore the human factor. And with that, they miss grass roots macro  trends like the populism that triggered Brexit. They do not see what our friend Bon does, that people are not numbers, and the more we rely on  models dogmatically,  the more likely we are to be surprised. Or as he would say : Dont be stupid! Trump is going to win in a landslide.

So while numbers are counted by Nate Silver, conditional/ subjectivity of the person polled is not factored in. This is the problem in modern  polling and stats.

In trading we used to Fade brokers to protect ourselves from this. We were taught statistically that it is 50/50 every order is buy/sell. But when  a  broker came in everyday at the same time for 2 months straight and bought from us, that concept meant shit. We used to say:  Crap, how high do I have to make this price so he would not buy from us? And the answer was essentially NONE. That broker was a buyer and would continue to be one until he began unwinding  his position.

Option Traders Don’t Get it

At the time I understood this as Bayesian probability and explained the rationale for “fading” markets to my boss and mentor. He disagreed. He did not get it. He was an extremely hard working savant who in the end became a bitter detractor despite my idol worship and his own immense  success. When you quit working for him, with only a couple exceptions, you were the enemy.  All this because the man, like the modern pollster could not grasp that whenever human behaviour is involved, probability has a subjective factor.

What are the Odds of a DC March if a Populist President is Impeached?

Can we afford to ignore “Bon”, our colleague who is quite sane, does not represent the lunatic fringe, and is intimately aware that while Trump may not be a beltway darling, he has governed through populism.

Witness how Trump castrated the media with his “Fake News” press conference. He literally made people reject the MSM info as false and further likely turned people off to even looking at it.

He effectively put them in a box where they could not sell their wares anymore.

This is no easy task. Winning elections via populism is easy game. But actually governing that way is not easy. We’d dare say,  it has not been done ever in a Republic.

So here we are. A populist-ly elected President who has thus far governed through populism. A president with a loyal following that is likely to not take an unconstitutional impeachment sitting down. Trump will not go quietly into the night. He will appeal to the public. He is a narcissist. And to his credit, narcissists are  all about winning popularity contests.

And against him are now the legal types who will use the Constitution to undermine it.

To Bon we joked:

“To get you and your pals to disburse, all we have to do is kill the wifi.”

To which he responded:

That isn’t enough. You may get some to go home with Beer bribes, but the core people mean business. They will not stand for this.

People vs. Elites

Do you want to bet against a DC march  if Trump is impeached? Do you want to be short Gold or long stocks if that happens?

A march would be an exponential increase in uncertainty. The people vs the Elites. And in the end with Elitist power at their disposal including manipulating the press, social media, revoking freedom of speech and rights to assemble and restricting gun ownership; it wont be enough. There will be the fallback to the use of force. People in power always lean on that when  needed. And while they may have learned marketing and manipulation tricks, at bottom, there is always metal hammer inside that velvet wrapper you see.

People are fed up. Impeach  at Your Own Risk

We personally own 2 guns. A Benelli shotgun for skeet, and a 357 magnum for target range shooting. As believers in gun control laws for non law abiding citizens, we will not be inclined to subscribe to giving up what protects us from  a deep state that does what it wants and when it loses, changes the rules. This is the potential beginning of  the libertarian left and right People aligning against the authoritarian left and right Elitists.

Impeachment Adds Uncertainty, Not Closure

So this will not end with impeachment. It will only stir more problems at grass roots levels. To tell 50% of the country that already distrusts its institutions that those  same institutions are collaborating to kill off their president may be a spark of revolt unlike anything seen  since the 1960s.

This is the cause that would unite libertarians, rednecks, NRA types, uneducated (but no less human and entitled to constitutional rights) and the silently suffering suburban middle class under one banner. People evolve at their own pace. Stop telling us what is best for us. That is not working out so well for you in the world. Don’t do it here

12 Comments

  1. Nope, no civil war. Sorry Usury Bankers. USA Business is not American business.
    Arm the Repbliphiles and the demophiles, equally, sell tickets, put it on pay per view, and let them kill the s#it out of each other.

    Washington DC has nothing to do with America, other than the seat of the oppressor.
    If it is Good for the UNITED STATES, it is Bad for America’
    http://www.johnccarleton.org/BLOGGER/2017/05/17/if-it-is-good-for-the-united-states-it-is-bad-for-america-if-it-is-good-for-america-it-is-bad-for-the-united-states/

  2. This is exactly what they want. Just the mention of impeachment has already started the articles such as this. The Deep State knows the longer President Trump stays in Office, The Stronger his power will become. The President controls the Pentagon and the Justice department. They are scared to death of that kind of power. Not only will the President destroy all the treasonous actions of the prior administration, but will chart a course of saving the bill of rights, and the very constitution itself. This control of the Justice department scares them more than anything else, they fear the past crimes, the fact that trillions have been stolen over the past two administrations, that fear is not only real, it scares the hell out of them.

  3. The people vs the elite argument here is complex. There is a 1% problem (economic inequality problem) in the US due to the failure of capitalism under the rising tide of technology. And that rising inequality problem is fueling most of the underlying anger and frustration in society. This inequality tends to allow the cities to do well, while rural and small town America falls further behind. From the perspective of rural (Trump) America, they feel like they are in a battle against the “elites” in the city because the big city folk are doing ok for the most part and tend to fail to understand what’s happen to the rest of America.

    All of us are in a battle against rising inequality. But most of us, think Trump is a moron doing all the wrong things for America. Trump LOST the popular vote and his approval is only going further down hill the longer he stays in office.

    But the part of America that can’t move to the city and “make it there”, are suffering with no options, and they feel they are in a fight against these rich “ruling” elites.

    Well, the ruling elites are simply the majority. Not ther 1%. The answer is totally mis0-directed. They should be angry at the rising inequality that is sinking their boats, but they they are incorrectly diverting their anger at the “smart” city folk that are doing well in life.

    But in fact, MOST of the smart city folks are TRYING TO FIGHT THE RISING INEQUALITY, and FIX the problems of the rural folk that are losing out economically. But the suffering rural folk are fighting the change required to fix their problem, by voting for a total moron like Trump whose policies will all make their economic future worse.

    The rural folk have a dream of going to back to good old days of the 1950’s, when that is just not an option. We aren’t going to give up the modern technology like computers that got us to where we are today, and which is preventing us from ever going back. The technology is creating a modern utopia for us, but the pure capitalist free trade view of society can’t work when machines are producing most the economic value for us. When we use machines to produce value, we get rising crazy inequality where a few capitalists own the machines and get super rich, and the jobs left for humans, are worth less and less every year. But Trump doesn’t have a clue about any of this. He’s a moron. And the rural folk that voted for Trump have no clue about what they NEED to be fighting, or else none of them would have voted for Trump.

    They are in a battle for their survival, but they are fighting the wrong ghost. They are fighting the smart people that are TRYING To fix their problems, and refusing to take the medicine (more socialism).

    The smart people can’t fix the world, if the less informed keep fighting the changes needed to fix it, and that’s what the world is facing.

    Either we let Trump take us down a hopeless path of true American failure and decay by trying to make free trade capitalism rule the nation in a time of rapidly rising technology, or we take the path that fixes it, (not Trump) and end up with the suffering people, matching with pitchforks against the very people that are working to solve their problems for them.

    Yes, it could result in a civil war. But sometimes, when people refuse to do what is right, and what is needed, you really have to have a civil war for society to move forward.

    If the “people” rose up against the 1%, the people could win. But if the Trump supporters rise up, against the majority that didn’t vote for Trump, and who are working to fix the problems of the “people”, they will lose, just like what happened in the last civil war. It will be bloody, and messy, but the “people” will lose the war, again. Because it’s not the “people” that are fighting, it’s the 45% that are suffering economically against the smart, well educated, wealthy, and very powerful, city folk, who for the most part, ONLY WANT TO FIX THE PROBLEM, and not fight a war against the very people they are trying to help.

    But if the people are too stupid to understand this, and want to fight a war, the “majority city elites” will kick their asses and throw them in jail if that’s what it takes to move the nation forward. Again.

    I do hope it doesn’t come to this, but there’s only so much of Trumps disasters we can allow before congress must stop it.

    • People often complain about “income inequality” and “The top 1%”. I for one am not angry at or jealous of these people. If you examine the top 1%, most of these people are the ultimate in success stories for the US. Theyre people like Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, yes Donal Trump, etc. Many of these people have blessed us all with their vision brought to fruition in things like “the iPhone”, the computer, medical breakthrough’s, safer automobiles, more efficient electronics and electricity generation, etc. I for one am glad that these people have lived and have blessed the rest of us with their inventions! Am I mad at a cardiologist who does heart transplants and probably makes a million a year or better? Hell no! I am thankful he has developed his god given talents and saved the lives of many! Im sure the guy who invented the airbags in your car is quite wealthy. Am I mad at him for making money from that? Hell no! An airbag saved my life once, and I am thankful someone had that idea and put it in every car! You see income “inequality” is based a lot on “intelligence inequality”. Lets face it, the geniuses of society are rewarded for their intelligence via wealth. And if anyone ever takes that away, you will remove one of the biggest motivators that encourage people to “build the better mousetraps” that benefit all of our lives. People who cry about income inequality are spoiled brats who have not used their intellect for whatever reason (laziness, sloth, etc) to better themselves, and find it easier to be jealous and complain about the overachievers in society. And now with terms like “income inequality” theyve found an politically correct way to almost justify stealing from someone who has succeeded in this country. Well, almost.

      • “And if anyone ever takes that away, you will remove one of the biggest motivators that encourage people to “build the better mousetraps””

        No one is suggesting removing inequality. You don’t seem to even understand what is being discussed. Inequality has grown far too large, and must be reduced to bring society back into balance. But it must not be REMOVED exactly for the reasons you state.

        Inequality was at a fair and reasonable levels in the 60’s, plenty of inequality to keep people motivated. But it’s grown far worse over the years leading to endless social and economic problems. The excess growth of inequality has not made anyone more motivated or more productive. Despite 55 years of inequality growing larger, it’s made the economy no more productive. The economy grows at the same rate it always has. This excess inequality is not helping anything and it’s causing endless suffering and anger in society. Just look at the other posts in this thread where people are angry about being “oppressed”. They only force oppressing them is inequality, not Washington, or “the elites” or any other false target they want to focus their anger towards.

        We must reduce inequality, back to what it was in the “good days” of America.

        For example, if minimum wage was raised to keep pay inequality the same as it was in 1968, minimum wage would have to be around $23 an hour. We have created a far less equal society than what we had half a century ago and if we don’t fix this the poor and oppressed will rise up and destroy the society.

        Another fact you got totally wrong, is that money only motivates people to get the basic necessities of life. If you don’t have food, you will do any sort of hard work to get the money you need to get food. But once most the basics of life are covered like food and and shelter and basic security in life, money doesn’t work as a good motivator for creative people. Factors like fame, and social acceptance, become the main drivers. Money, tends to deter productivity when creativity becomes the driving force. Many sociology experiments have been done that demonstrate this problem. If you try to pay people to be creative, their creativity suffers because they feel obligated to produce SOMETHING and become unwilling to take the risks and bold creative leaps that are needed for the best acts of creativity.

        Most people that do really well in life due to their creativity, do so DESPITE the money they receive, not because of it.

        Do you have any grasp of how much we are overpaying people like Mark Zuckerberg for creating Facebook? As a society, we have paid him more than a MILLION DOLLARS A DAY — 365 days a year, for the entire time he’s been working on Facebook. He does not that need that much money. He does not spend that money. But society keeps throwing it at him. He is only on of millions of people that we overpay has a society like this, while millions of others are forced to struggle without food, and shelter, and basic health care. It’s ABSURD that a society so rich, chooses to intentionally abuse it’s citizens.

        The reason we abuse our citizens when there is no reason to to do it, is because of people like YOU GARRY, that are too ignorant of what’s happening to understand how wrong you are with your fabricated nonsense about how “good” massive inequality is for people.

        Gary, I’ve made MILLIONS in my life. I’m an inventor, and engineer,. I’ve made a fortune (compared to some) being part of multiple high tech startups. I’m not “jealous” of the people making money. I AM the person milking the system and living the good life because of it.

        Many of the rich all know that inequality is out of control, and must be brought down and are willing to step forward and do something about it.

        THe people lie you, that say “life is good”, tend to be middle class hard working folks that have build a decent life for themselves by hard work. Good for you. But you are being ignorant if all you do is look at how you are doing, and assem anyone that is not doing sa well must not have worked as hard as you, or that anyo edoing better, just worked harder.

        I don’t work hard. I don’t have to. But financially I’m doing better that most people that spend their entire life working hard. It’s absurd that because of a higher IQ or being a white male, or born to the right parents, that society gives me all these gifts, and denies others. Society most certainly does not reward effort with money as it should. Most poor people work far harder than most rich people. Excess inequality is what creates that.

        We should reduce excess inequality down so that hard work is what separates the rich from the laid back, and reduce inequality so everyone can have a secure future, and build whatever type of life they want to build for themselves, We don’t’ have that today, and the only reason we don’t, is because of people like you Gary, that refuse to allow us to create a better society. You are in a sinking ship that is about to tip over due to inequality, and you keep telling people huge inequality is just fine, nothing to worry about!

        Please, reache the facts, and stop just echoing nonsense you have heard from others. Be that creative person you say you want people to be.

        • I am all for income inequality. Jamie Dimon should make 20 times what an unskilled laborer makes. Perhaps 50 times. But he makes 1,000 times that person’s wage..

  4. People will have too much to lose, there will be a few scuffles and that is it. Sadly white people don’t fight for their interests.

  5. I find every response to this article to be disingenuous…which is an erudite way of saying…you folks are so full of crap you squeak when you walk…simply due to not knowing what actually happens when TSHTF. Check out what happened to 1,000s of stupid Lieutenants in the ‘Nam war fragged by their own troops…why?…narcissistic stupidity.

    This translates to…I am the platoon leader, even if I just finished my 90 day shake and bake course…ergo I know more than battle savvy soldiers, ‘cuz my non-combat experienced officer candidate school instructors said so. Ever hear the expression…chairborne ranger?

    The ‘Nam war was lost the same way what passes for education in the U.S…it was deliberately dumbed down. Ask your self why are we still bogged down in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and then take a few seconds to check out which countries are still independent from financial control by the House of Rothschild. The expression T H E Y comes into play here, it means The Hierarchy Enslaving You. The powers that be that allowed Trump to win instead of hell-ary wanted to ensure their total control grip. T H E Y know only too well Obummer and hell-ary are as narcissistic as Trump…butt…they are not independently wealthy enough to bite the hand that feeds them.

    Next unanswered query, if Trump goes, who replaces him? Pence can be accidented out of the running…yes? The classic QUI BONO rears its ugly head…who benefits? hell-ary being snuck in thru the cellar door?

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